In 2026, the global leather industry faces a pivotal turning point. On one hand, the end-consumer market continues to recover, with the global leather goods market size expected to reach $566.23 billion in 2026; on the other hand, the industry is at the intersection of multiple tides including environmental pressures, trade rule restructuring, and the materials revolution.

New National Standard Issued, Safety Thresholds Fully Upgraded

On March 31, 2026, the State Administration for Market Regulation officially issued GB 20400-2026 "Safety Technical Specification for Leather and Fur Products," fully replacing the old standard that had been in effect for nearly twenty years, and will be implemented from April 1, 2027.

The new standard not only upgrades its title from "Limits of Harmful Substances" to "Safety Technical Specification," but also achieves major breakthroughs in scope of control, technical indicators, and testing methods. The list of carcinogenic aromatic amines has been expanded from 23 to 24, with 4-aminoazobenzene added; additionally, six new categories of controlled substances have been introduced, covering hexavalent chromium, short-chain chlorinated paraffins, chlorinated phenols, phthalates, total heavy metals, and dimethyl fumarate.

At the same time, the terminology system has been systematically overhauled. The age definition for "infants and young children" has been relaxed from 24 months to 36 months, aligning with international common practices. Industry experts point out that this mandatory national standard is not only significant for consumer health protection, but will also compel the upstream and downstream of the leather industry chain to accelerate technological upgrading and green transformation, driving China's leather products to take more solid steps in international market competition.

Low-Carbon Transformation Roadmap Anchors 2035

Against the macro backdrop of the deepening "dual carbon" strategy, the logic of green development in the tanning industry is undergoing a profound shift. On May 26, the China Leather Association organized a workshop on the third revision of the "Water Saving and Emission Reduction Technology Roadmap for the Tanning Industry," marking the full launch of the 2026 revision work, which is expected to be officially released by the end of August.

Compared to the previous two editions, the most notable feature of this revision is that for the first time, the target timeline has been extended to 2030 and 2035, signifying that the industry's green transformation has formally moved from phased management to the construction of a mid-to-long-term low-carbon development system. Industry experts analyze that this change reflects a fundamental leap in the logic of the industry's environmental governance: in the past, focus was on "end-of-pipe treatment"—mainly addressing pollution from wastewater, waste gas, and solid waste; now it has shifted to a systemic transformation covering resource utilization, energy structure, circular economy, and carbon footprint management.

In terms of technological system, the new roadmap will focus on strengthening green and low-carbon technology paths such as chrome-free tanning, wastewater recycling, solid waste resource utilization, and VOCs treatment. For a long time, chrome tanning has been widely used due to its high efficiency and low cost, but its potential environmental risks have always been a challenging obstacle in the industry's green transformation. Experts point out that chrome-free and low-pollution processes are becoming an important breakthrough for China's tanning industry to enhance its international competitiveness.

EU's EUDR Proposes Exemption for Leather

Significant signals also come at the level of international trade rules. In early May 2026, the European Commission introduced a package of simplification measures to advance the implementation of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), among which the change with the most direct impact on the fashion industry is the proposal to exclude leather from the traceability obligations related to deforestation under the EUDR.

It is estimated that this adjustment is expected to reduce corporate compliance costs by approximately 75%. As one of the most impactful environmental trade regulations in the EU in recent years, the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) requires operators to prove that products involving six major categories of raw materials — livestock, timber, soybeans, cocoa, coffee, rubber, or palm oil — do not originate from deforested areas. Leather, as a key material in the value chain of footwear, luggage, and leather goods, previously faced highly complex and expensive traceability management challenges.

However, while the exemption proposal has been welcomed by the industry, it has also drawn strong skepticism from environmental organizations. Greenpeace criticized the move for leaving a "loophole" in addressing the main causes of deforestation, calling on the European Parliament and member states to block the measure. The public consultation period for the delegated act runs until June 1, and the final outcome remains uncertain.

Bio-based leather alternatives still on the verge of a breakthrough

In the field of materials innovation, research interest in bio-based leather alternatives continues to rise, but there is still a significant gap to large-scale application. In January 2026, Professor Lin Wei of Sichuan University and Professor Wei Tao of the Chinese University of Hong Kong collaborated to publish a systematic review of bio-based leather alternatives in Nature Sustainability.

The paper points out that currently, no fully bio-based leather alternative material can comprehensively mimic the comprehensive properties of natural leather, such as mechanical strength, water vapor permeability, and tactile feel. Whether it is apple leather, mushroom leather, or bacterial cellulose leather, petroleum-based ingredients often need to be added in practical applications to make up for performance shortcomings.

Meanwhile, the EU's Fabulose project is attempting to use biotechnological approaches, utilizing natural biopolymers such as bacterial cellulose and cyanophycin, to develop environmentally friendly leather alternative materials, targeting applications in the fashion, automotive, and furniture industries. In traditional leather tanning, there is research attempting to use waste eggshells to prepare nano-calcium oxide, developing novel bio-based retanning materials, and exploring greener innovation paths in the tanning process.

Overall, the development of bio-based leather alternatives requires the integration of biomanufacturing technologies and cross-industry collaboration, and only by establishing accurate material definition systems and life cycle assessment standards can truly marketable products be formed.

Strong start, market confidence rebounds

Trade data from early 2026 has injected positive confidence into the industry's full-year development. According to data released by the China Leather Association, in January-February 2026, the total export value of the national leather industry reached US$14.70 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.9%; total imports were US$2.52 billion, up 4.2% year-on-year; the trade surplus was US$12.18 billion, up 13.7% year-on-year, accounting for 5.7% of the country's total trade surplus.

Among sub-sectors, leather garment exports performed particularly well, with export value surging 100.0% year-on-year and export volume increasing 53.3% year-on-year; finished leather exports saw a volume increase of 11.4% and value increase of 14.9% year-on-year.

From a global market outlook, the global leather goods market size is expected to grow from US$566.23 billion in 2026 to US$982.42 billion in 2034, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.13% during the forecast period. Europe holds the largest market share at 37.31%, while the growing middle class in emerging markets such as China and India continues to drive demand for branded leather accessories.

Looking ahead to 2026, the global leather industry is at a crossroads of traditional models and green transformation, old standards and new norms, and adjustments to international trade rules. Companies that can take the lead in completing environmental technology upgrades, proactively adapt to evolving standards, and continuously enhance product safety and sustainable competitiveness are expected to gain more opportunities in the wave of global industrial chain restructuring.

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